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Chapter 1 What is Simulation？3

1.1 Modeling3

1.1.1 What’s Being Modeled？3

1.1.2 How About Just Playing with the System？5

1.1.3 Sometimes You Can’t （or Shouldn’t） Play with the System5

1.1.4 Physical Models5

1.1.5 Logical （or Mathematical） Models6

1.1.6 What Do You Do with a Logical Model？6

1.2 Computer Simulation7

1.2.1 Popularity and Advantages7

1.2.2 The Bad News8

1.2.3 Different Kinds of Simulations9

1.3 How Simulations Get Done9

1.3.1 By Hand10

1.3.2 Programming in General-Purpose Languages11

1.3.3 Simulation Languages11

1.3.4 High-Level Simulators11

1.3.5 Where Arena Fits In12

1.4 When Simulations Are Used13

1.4.1 The Early Years13

1.4.2 The Formative Years13

1.4.3 The Recent Past14

1.4.4 The Present14

1.4.5 The Future15

Chapter 2 Fundamental Simulation Concepts19

2.1 An Example19

2.1.1 The System19

2.1.2 Goals of the Study20

2.2 Analysis Options22

2.2.1 Educated Guessing22

2.2.2 Queueing Theory22

2.2.3 Mechanistic Simulation23

2.3 Pieces of a Simulation Model24

2.3.1 Entities24

2.3.2 Attributes25

2.3.3 （Global） Variables25

2.3.4 Resources25

2.3.5 Queues26

2.3.6 Statistical Accumulators26

2.3.7 Events26

2.3.8 Simulation Clock27

2.3.9 Starting and Stopping28

2.4 Event-Driven Hand Simulation28

2.4.1 Outline of the Action28

2.4.2 Keeping Track29

2.4.3 Carrying It Out31

2.4.4 Finishing Up33

2.5 Event and Process-Oriented Simulation33

2.6 Randomness in Simulation35

2.6.1 Random Input，Random Output35

2.6.2 Replicating the Example35

2.6.3 Comparing Alternatives37

2.7 Overview of a Simulation Study38

2.8 Exercises40

Chapter 3 A Quick Peek at Arena43

3.1 Starting Up43

3.2 Browsing an Existing Model44

3.2.1 Viewing the Model Window45

3.2.2 The Arrive Module46

3.2.3 The Server Module47

3.2.4 The Depart Module49

3.2.5 The Simulate Module49

3.2.6 Module Connections50

3.2.7 Dynamic Plots51

3.2.8 Dressing Things Up52

3.2.9 Running It53

3.3 Understanding What Just Happened54

3.3.1 Arena’s Modeling Orientation55

3.3.2 Launching Entities Into the Model—The Arrive Module Revisited55

3.3.3 Processing the Entity—The Server Module Revisited57

3.3.4 Leaving the Modeled System—The Depart Module Revisited58

3.3.5 Controlling the Run—The Simulate Module Revisited59

3.4 Exercises59

Chapter 4 Working with Arena63

4.1 Basic Interaction63

4.2 Menus65

4.3 Toolbars68

4.4 Help71

4.5 Model Windows72

4.6 Drawing72

4.7 Printing74

4.8 Running74

4.9 Building the Simple Processing Model75

Chapter 5 Modeling Basic Operations and Inputs85

5.1 Model 5.1：An Electronic Assembly and Test System85

5.1.1 Developing a Modeling Approach86

5.1.2 Some New Arena Concepts：Stations，Transfers，and Pictures87

5.1.3 Building the Model89

5.1.4 Running the Model98

5.1.5 Viewing the Results99

5.2 Model 5.2：The Enhanced Electronic Assembly and Test System100

5.2.1 Expanding Resource Representation：Schedules and States102

5.2.2 Resource Schedules103

5.2.3 Resource Failures106

5.2.4 Saving Statistical Data107

5.2.5 Results of Model 5.2111

5.2.6 The Output Analyzer112

5.3 Enhancing the Animation116

5.3.1 Changing Animation Queues117

5.3.2 Changing Entity Pictures119

5.3.3 Changing Resource Pictures122

5.3.4 Adding Plots and Variables124

5.4 Input Analysis：Specifying Model Parameters and Distributions128

5.4.1 Deterministic vs.Random Inputs129

5.4.2 Collecting Data130

5.4.3 Using Data131

5.4.4 Fitting Input Distributions via the Input Analyzer132

5.4.5 No Data？139

5.4.6 Nonstationary Arrival Processes141

5.4.7 Multivariate and Correlated Input Data142

5.5 Summary and Forecast142

5.6 Exercises142

Chapter 6 Intermediate Modeling and Terminating Statistical Analysis149

6.1 Model 6.1：A Small Manufacturing System149

6.2 New Arena Concepts150

6.2.1 Sequences150

6.2.2 Variables and Expressions152

6.2.3 Sets153

6.3 The Modeling Approach153

6.4 Building the Model154

6.4.1 The Data Modules154

6.4.2 The Logic Modules159

6.4.3 Animation170

6.4.4 Verification173

6.5 Confidence Intervals for Terminating Simulations via the Output Analyzer176

6.5.1 Time Frame of Simulations176

6.5.2 Model 6.2：Modifying Model 6.1 for a Terminating Analysis177

6.5.3 Strategy for Data Collection and Analysis180

6.5.4 Confidence Intervals for Terminating Systems182

6.5.5 Comparing Alternatives188

6.6 Summary and Forecast190

6.7 Exercises190

Chapter 7 Entiry Transfer and Steady-State Statistical Analysis197

7.1 Types of Entity Transfers197

7.2 Resource-Constrained Transfers199

7.3 Model 7.1：The Small Manufacturing System with Transporters200

7.4 Conveyors211

7.4.1 Model 7.2：The Small Manufacturing System with Nonaccumulating Conveyors214

7.4.2 Model 7.3：The Small Manufacturing System with Accumulating Conveyors218

7.5 Statistical Analysis of Steady-State Simulations219

7.5.1 Warm Up and Run Length219

7.5.2 Truncated Replications223

7.5.3 Batching in a Single Run224

7.5.4 Automatic Run-Time Confidence Intervals via Batch Means232

7.5.5 What To Do？234

7.5.6 Other Methods and Goals for Steady-State Statistical Analysis234

7.6 Summary and Forecast235

7.7 Exercises235

Chapter 8 Detailed Modeling242

8.1 Model 8.1：A Generic Call Center System242

8.2 New Modeling Issues244

8.3 Terminating or Steady-State247

8.4 Modeling Approach247

8.5 Defining the Data249

8.6 Determine Maximum Arrival Rate and Increment Time Period251

8.7 Create Arrivals and Direct to Service259

8.8 Technical Support Calls265

8.9 Sales Calls270

8.10 Order-Status Calls273

8.11 Finding and Fixing Model Errors274

8.12 Animating the Model283

8.13 Summary and Forecast291

8.14 Exercises291

Chapter 9 A Sampler of Further Modeling Issues and Techniques299

9.1 Modeling Conveyors Using the Transfer Panel299

9.1.1 Model 9.1：Finite Buffers at Stations300

9.1.2 Model 9.2：Parts Stay on Conveyor During Processing305

9.2 More on Transporters306

9.3 Entity Reneging308

9.3.1 Entity Balking and Reneging308

9.3.2 Model 9.3：A Service Model with Balking and Reneging309

9.4 Holding and Batching Entities316

9.4.1 Modeling Options316

9.4.2 Model 9.4：A Batching Process Example317

9.5 Overlapping Resources328

9.5.1 System Description329

9.5.2 Model 9.5：A Tightly-Coupled Production System330

9.6 A Few Miscellaneous Modeling Issues350

9.6.1 Guided Transporters350

9.6.2 Parallel Queues350

9.6.3 Decision Logic352

9.6.4 Continuous Modeling352

9.7 Exercises354

Chapter 10 Arena Customization and Integration363

10.1 Model 10.1：Generating Entity Arrivals from Historical Data363

10.2 Model 10.2：Recording and Charting Model Results in Microsoft R Excel367

10.2.1 An Overview of ActiveX TM Automation and VBA367

10.2.2 VBA Events at the Beginning of a Simulation Run368

10.2.3 Storing Individual Call Data Using the VBA Module372

10.2.4 Charting the Results and Cleaning Up at the End of the Run374

10.3 Model 10.3：Organizing and Creating Your Own Reports375

10.4 Model 10.4：Linking To and Embedding Other Files381

10.4.1 Placing the Word File in the Arena Model381

10.4.2 Establishing a Link to the Microsoft R PowerPoint R Presentation383

10.4.3 Adding the Sound File384

10.4.4 Tagging the Arena Objects for Identification in VBA385

10.4.5 The Welcome Form386

10.5 Creating Modules Using the Arena Professional Edition：Template 10.1388

10.5.1 The Create from File Module389

10.5.2 The Template Source File：Tpl_10_1.tpl390

10.5.3 The Panel Icon and User View390

10.5.4 The Module Logic and Operands391

10.5.5 Uses of Templates394

10.6 Summary395

10.7 Exercises395

Chapter 11 Further Statistical Issues399

11.1 Random-Number Generation399

11.2 Generating Random Variates403

11.2.1 Discrete404

11.2.2 Continuous405

11.3 Nonstationary Poisson Processes407

11.4 Variance Reduction409

11.4.1 Common Random Numbers410

11.4.2 Other Methods418

11.5 Sequential Sampling419

11.5.1 Terminating Models419

11.5.2 Steady-State Models424

11.6 Some Additional Capabilities of the Output Analyzer427

11.6.1 Confidence Interval on Standard Deviation427

11.6.2 Compare Variances428

11.6.3 One-Way ANOVA428

11.7 Designing and Executing Simulation Experiments429

11.8 Exercises429

Chapter 12 Conducting Simulation Studies433

12.1 A Successful Simulation Study433

12.2 Problem Formulation436

12.3 Solution Methodology437

12.4 System and Simulation Specification438

12.5 Model Formulation and Construction442

12.6 Verification and Validation444

12.7 Experimentation and Analysis447

12.8 Presenting and Preserving the Results448

12.9 Disseminating the Model：The Arena Viewer449

Appendix A A Functional Specification for The Washington Post453

A.1 Introduction453

A.1.1 Document Organization453

A.1.2 Simulation Objectives453

A.1.3 Purpose of the Functional Specification454

A.1.4 Use of the Model454

A.1.5 Hardware and Software Requirements455

A.2 System Description and Modeling Approach455

A.2.1 Model Timeline455

A.2.2 Presses455

A.2.3 Product Types457

A.2.4 Press Packaging Lines457

A.2.5 Tray System457

A.2.6 Truck Arrivals458

A.2.7 Docks459

A.2.8 Palletizers459

A.2.9 Manual Insertion Process460

Example460

A.3 Animation461

A.4 Summary of Input and Output461

A.4.1 Model Input461

A.4.2 Model Output462

A.5 Project Deliverables464

A.5.1 Simulation Model Documentation464

A.5.2 User’s Manual464

A.5.3 Model Validation464

A.5.4 Animation464

A.6 Acceptance464

Appendix B IIE/SM Contest Problems469

B.1 First Annual Contest：The SM Superstore469

B.2 Second Annual Contest：The SM Market471

B.3 Third Annual Contest：Sally Model’s SM Pizza Shop474

Appendix C A Refresher on Probability and Statistics481

C.1 Probability Basics481

C.2 Random Variables483

C.2.1 Basics483

C.2.2 Discrete484

C.2.3 Continuous486

C.2.4 Joint Distributions，Covariance，Correlation，and Independence488

C.3 Sampling and Sampling Distributions491

C.4 Point Estimation492

C.5 Confidence Intervals493

C.6 Hypothesis Tests495

Appendix D Arena’s Probability Distributions501

Beta501

Continuous502

Discrete504

Erlang505

Exponential506

Gamma507

Johnson508

Lognormal509

Normal510

Poisson511

Triangular512

Uniform513

Weibull514

Appendix E Academic Software Installation Instructions517

E.1 Authorization to Copy Software517

E.2 Installing the Arena Software517

E.3 System Requirements518

E.4 Floppy Disks518

References523

References523

Index529

Index529