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道路交通安全综合评价理论与方法PDF|Epub|txt|kindle电子书版本网盘下载

裴欣著著
出版社：北京：北京交通大学出版社
ISBN：9787512113572
出版时间：2013
标注页数：145页
文件大小：20MB
文件页数：158页
主题词：公路运输－交通运输安全－综合评价－研究－英文

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图书目录

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION1

1.1 GENERAL INTRODUCTION1

1.2 OBJECTIVES3

1.3 BOOK STRUCTURE5

CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW7

2.1 EVALUATION CRITERIA AND PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR ROAD SAFETY PERFORMANCE7

2.1.1 Role of exposure in road safety analyses8

2.1.2 Predictive models for crash occurrence9

2.1.3 Predictive models for crash severity11

2.1.4 Integrated models13

2.2 METHODS OF ANALYSES14

2.2.1 Maximum likelihood estimation15

2.2.2 Full Bayesian method15

2.3 RISK FACTORS17

2.3.1 Speed and road safety17

2.3.2 Geometric and operational factors and road safety19

2.3.3 Weather conditions and road safety20

2.4 CONCLUDING REMARKS20

CHAPTER 3 MODELING FRAMEWORK21

3.1 MODELING APPROACH21

3.1.1 Crash frequency models22

3.1.2 Crash severity models29

3.1.3 Joint probability models31

3.2 ESTIMATION METHOD37

3.2.1 Maximum likelihood estimation method37

3.2.2 Bayesian method39

3.3 CONCLUDING REMARKS49

CHAPTER 4 SAFETY ANALYSIS FOR SIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS50

4.1 INTRODUCTION50

4.2 DATA52

4.3 MODEL SPECIFICATION57

4.3.1 Probability function for crash occurrence57

4.3.2 Probability function for crash severity59

4.3.3 Joint probability function60

4.4 RESULTS61

4.5 DISCUSSION63

4.5.1 Quadrant 1:Significant factors affecting crash occurrence and crash severity64

4.5.2 Quadrant 2:Significant factors affecting crash occurrence only65

4.5.3 Quadrant 3:Significant factors affecting crash severity only66

4.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS66

CHAPTER 5 SAFETY ANALYSIS FOR ROAD SEGMENTS68

5.1 INTRODUCTION68

5.1.1 Road safetyon road segments68

5.1.2 Role ofexposure and speed in road safety analysis70

5.2 DATA71

5.2.1 Crash database72

5.2.2 Speed measurement75

5.2.3 Traffic volume and exposure77

5.2.4 Explanatory factors78

5.2.5 Data summary79

5.3 MODEL SPECIFICATION82

5.3.1 Probability function for crash occurrence82

5.3.2 Probability function for crash severity83

5.3.3 Joint probability functions84

5.4 RESULTS85

5.5 DISCUSSION89

5.5.1 Speed and road safety89

5.5.2 Effects of explanatory factors92

5.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS93

CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSIONS95

6.1 GENERAL CONCLUSIONS95

6.2 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH97

6.2.1 Alternative models in an integrated modeling framework97

6.2.2 Bayesian updating function with prior information98

6.2.3 Disaggregated safety analysis99

APPENDIX A MOVING OBSERVER METHOD FOR SPEED DISTRIBUTION ESTIMATION100

A.1 INTRODUCTION100

A.2 MODEL DEVELOPMENT102

A.3 MODEL CALIBRATION104

A.4 MODEL VALIDATION107

A.5 CONCLUDING REMARKS108

APPENDIX B GPS PROBE METHOD FOR SPEED DISTRIBUTION ESTIMATION109

B.1 INTRODUCTION109

B.2 DATA111

B.3 METHODOLOGY112

B.3.1 Models for average travel speed112

B.3.2 Models for speed dispersion114

B.3.3 Full Bayesian method114

B.4 RESULTS115

B.4.1 Average travel speed115

B.4.2 Speed dispersion122

B.5 DISCUSSION123

B.5.1 Average travel speed123

B.5.2 Speed dispersion125

B.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS125

REFERENCES126